USD/BRL predictions by AI models
An experiment: each day at 14:00 BRT, the 50 most popular OpenRouter models predict the BCB PTAX. Numbers only.
Run of Nov 3, 2026 · 46 answered, 4 failed, 0 refused · cost US$ 0.69
Consensus
Consensus (median of p50, one vote per model). PTAX on the prediction date: 5.4935 (Nov 3, 2026).
30 days
5.4500
6 months
5.4000
1 year
5.4500
5 years
5.9000
Consensus forecast
1 year: Nov 3, 2027PTAX 5.4935 Nov 3, 2026Consensus p50 5.4500 (4.8757–6.1750) Nov 3, 2027Random walk 5.4935 Nov 3, 2027Focus 5.3700 Nov 3, 2027Forward (approx.) 6.0155 Nov 3, 2027
Loading chart…
PTAX history, then from the run date the consensus p50 (line) and the median p10 and p90 (band) to each target date. Baselines: random walk (flat), Focus (markers), forward (approximation).
Model comparison
One row per model, sorted by p50. Dot: p50. Line: p10 to p90.
chat model decision model (Jev, Perplexity Decider) baseline
consensus p50 5.4500 PTAX of Nov 3, 2026: 5.4935
- solar-mini4 5.3300
- glm-5.2 5.3400
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5.3428
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5.3450
- qwen3.7-flash 5.3478
- pplx-decider-v1.2 5.3711
- gpt-5.6-luna 5.3800
- jev-1.13 5.3968
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5.4000
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5.4000
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5.4000
- solar-pro4 5.4035
- jev-1.14 5.4061
- claude-haiku-5.5 5.4200
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5.4200
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5.4200
- deepseek-v4-pro 5.4300
- step-5-preview 5.4300
- claude-sonnet-5 5.4500
- gemini-3.7-flash 5.4500
- gemma-4-31b-it 5.4500
- glm-5.3 5.4500
- inkling 5.4500
- mimo-v2.6-flash 5.4500
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5.4500
- gpt-6.1-sol 5.4520
- gemini-3.8-flash 5.4600
- qwen3.8-27b 5.4600
- qwen3.8-flash 5.4600
- gpt-6-luna 5.4700
- gpt-6.1-terra 5.4700
- gpt-6-astra 5.4800
- gpt-6-luna-pro 5.4800
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5.4850
- claude-fable-5.1 5.4900
- claude-opus-5.5 5.4900
- claude-sonnet-5.5 5.4900
- minimax-m3 5.4900
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5.5000
- glm-5.3-flash 5.5000
- hy3 5.5000
- kimi-k3 5.5000
- gemini-4-argon 5.5100
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 5.5185
- gpt-oss-120b 5.5250
- deepseek-v4-flash 5.5500
- Random walk 5.4935
- Focus 5.3428
- Forward (approx.) 5.5346
No answer (4): tencent/hy4-preview (timeout), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (error), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (error), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (invalid).
consensus p50 5.4000 PTAX of Nov 3, 2026: 5.4935
- pplx-decider-v1.2 5.3018
- jev-1.13 5.3174
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5.3300
- gemma-4-31b-it 5.3300
- glm-5.2 5.3300
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5.3300
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5.3300
- jev-1.14 5.3361
- qwen3.7-flash 5.3378
- gpt-5.6-luna 5.3400
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5.3600
- gemini-3.7-flash 5.3800
- inkling 5.3800
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5.3800
- gemini-3.8-flash 5.3900
- solar-pro4 5.3995
- claude-haiku-5.5 5.4000
- claude-sonnet-5 5.4000
- deepseek-v4-pro 5.4000
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5.4000
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5.4000
- glm-5.3 5.4000
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5.4000
- qwen3.8-27b 5.4000
- solar-mini4 5.4000
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5.4200
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5.4200
- minimax-m3 5.4200
- step-5-preview 5.4200
- gpt-6.1-sol 5.4380
- glm-5.3-flash 5.4500
- kimi-k3 5.4500
- gpt-6-astra 5.4700
- gpt-6.1-terra 5.4700
- claude-opus-5.5 5.4800
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 5.4850
- claude-sonnet-5.5 5.5000
- gpt-6-luna 5.5000
- mimo-v2.6-flash 5.5000
- qwen3.8-flash 5.5100
- gpt-6-luna-pro 5.5200
- claude-fable-5.1 5.5300
- hy3 5.5500
- gemini-4-argon 5.5600
- deepseek-v4-flash 5.6500
- gpt-oss-120b 5.6500
- Random walk 5.4935
- Focus 5.3300
- Forward (approx.) 5.7464
No answer (4): tencent/hy4-preview (timeout), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (error), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (error), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (invalid).
consensus p50 5.4500 PTAX of Nov 3, 2026: 5.4935
- pplx-decider-v1.2 5.2788
- jev-1.13 5.2810
- jev-1.14 5.3019
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5.3700
- glm-5.2 5.3700
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5.3700
- qwen3.7-flash 5.3734
- minimax-m3 5.3800
- solar-pro4 5.3995
- claude-haiku-5.5 5.4000
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5.4000
- gemma-4-31b-it 5.4000
- gpt-5.6-luna 5.4000
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5.4000
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5.4000
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5.4100
- gemini-3.7-flash 5.4200
- gemini-3.8-flash 5.4200
- inkling 5.4200
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5.4200
- qwen3.8-27b 5.4200
- claude-sonnet-5 5.4500
- deepseek-v4-pro 5.4500
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5.4500
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5.4500
- solar-mini4 5.4500
- glm-5.3-flash 5.4800
- step-5-preview 5.4800
- gpt-6.1-sol 5.4920
- claude-opus-5.5 5.5000
- glm-5.3 5.5000
- kimi-k3 5.5000
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5.5000
- gpt-6.1-terra 5.5200
- claude-sonnet-5.5 5.5500
- gpt-6-astra 5.5500
- mimo-v2.6-flash 5.5500
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 5.5645
- gpt-6-luna-pro 5.5800
- claude-fable-5.1 5.6200
- gemini-4-argon 5.6200
- gpt-6-luna 5.6500
- qwen3.8-flash 5.6500
- hy3 5.7000
- gpt-oss-120b 5.7750
- deepseek-v4-flash 5.8000
- Random walk 5.4935
- Focus 5.3700
- Forward (approx.) 6.0155
No answer (4): tencent/hy4-preview (timeout), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (error), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (error), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (invalid).
consensus p50 5.9000 PTAX of Nov 3, 2026: 5.4935
- solar-pro4 5.2595
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5.4500
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5.5000
- minimax-m3 5.5000
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5.5000
- qwen3.7-flash 5.5428
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5.5500
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5.5500
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5.5500
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5.5500
- qwen3.8-27b 5.5500
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5.6500
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5.6500
- inkling 5.6800
- claude-haiku-5.5 5.7000
- deepseek-v4-pro 5.7000
- gemini-3.7-flash 5.7000
- glm-5.2 5.7500
- claude-sonnet-5 5.8000
- gemini-3.8-flash 5.8000
- gemma-4-31b-it 5.8000
- kimi-k3 5.8000
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5.8500
- claude-opus-5.5 5.9500
- qwen3.8-flash 5.9500
- step-5-preview 5.9500
- gpt-5.6-luna 6.0000
- gpt-6.1-terra 6.0000
- solar-mini4 6.0000
- gpt-6.1-sol 6.0350
- gpt-6-luna-pro 6.0500
- claude-sonnet-5.5 6.1000
- gemini-4-argon 6.1000
- gpt-6-astra 6.1200
- pplx-decider-v1.2 6.1534
- claude-fable-5.1 6.2000
- glm-5.3 6.2500
- gpt-6-luna 6.2500
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 6.3150
- jev-1.13 6.3649
- deepseek-v4-flash 6.4000
- glm-5.3-flash 6.4000
- gpt-oss-120b 6.5000
- mimo-v2.6-flash 6.5000
- hy3 6.6000
- jev-1.14 6.7340
- Random walk 5.4935
- Forward (approx.) 8.6508
No answer (4): tencent/hy4-preview (timeout), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (error), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (error), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (invalid).
Consensus over time
This chart grows with each daily run. First run: Nov 3, 2026. The next runs are each day at 14:00 BRT.
All numbers (50 models)
On a narrow screen, the table shows one horizon. Choose it here.
Each cell: p50, then p10–p90 below.
| Model | 30dDec 3, 2026 | 6mMay 3, 2027 | 1yNov 3, 2027 | 5yNov 3, 2031 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| z-ai/glm-5.3-flash | 5.50005.2500–5.8200 | 5.45005.0200–6.0500 | 5.48004.9000–6.3500 | 6.40004.9000–8.8000 | ok |
| deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash | 5.40004.9777–5.8579 | 5.40004.4237–6.5918 | 5.45004.0586–7.3188 | 5.55003.1291–9.8440 | ok |
| tencent/hy4-preview | – | – | – | – | timeout |
| openai/gpt-6-luna | 5.47005.1500–5.8500 | 5.50004.9500–6.1500 | 5.65004.9000–6.6000 | 6.25004.5000–8.7000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 | 5.49005.2800–5.7300 | 5.48005.1000–5.9500 | 5.50005.0000–6.1000 | 5.95004.8000–7.6000 | ok |
| stepfun/step-5-preview | 5.43005.2500–5.6800 | 5.42004.9800–5.9800 | 5.48004.7800–6.3800 | 5.95004.5500–7.9000 | ok |
| minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash | 5.45005.0800–5.8200 | 5.40004.7500–6.1500 | 5.42004.6200–6.4000 | 5.55004.2000–7.3500 | ok |
| openai/gpt-5.6-luna | 5.38005.0800–5.7600 | 5.34004.8500–5.9000 | 5.40004.7000–6.2500 | 6.00004.1000–8.9000 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6.1-sol | 5.45205.1020–5.8440 | 5.43804.7480–6.2790 | 5.49204.5220–6.7840 | 6.03503.9820–9.4870 | ok |
| z-ai/glm-5.3 | 5.45005.1000–5.9000 | 5.40004.8500–6.1000 | 5.50004.8000–6.5000 | 6.25004.6000–8.3000 | ok |
| typesafe/jev-1.13typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 | 5.39685.2662–5.4742 | 5.31745.0690–5.4583 | 5.28105.1075–5.4545 | 6.36495.6072–8.4234 | ok |
| moonshotai/kimi-k3.1-pro | 5.40005.0200–5.8800 | 5.36004.6800–6.2200 | 5.41004.4200–6.6200 | 5.65004.0500–8.4500 | ok |
| tencent/hy3 | 5.50005.3000–5.7000 | 5.55005.1000–6.0000 | 5.70005.0000–6.4000 | 6.60005.6000–7.8000 | ok |
| nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b | 5.42005.3000–5.5500 | 5.38005.2500–5.5500 | 5.40005.2500–5.6000 | 5.55005.2000–5.9000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 | 5.42005.2000–5.6500 | 5.40005.0200–5.8200 | 5.40004.9000–5.9500 | 5.70004.9000–6.8000 | ok |
| nvidia/nemotron-3.5-super-vl | 5.40005.1000–5.7500 | 5.33004.8500–5.9000 | 5.37004.7000–6.2000 | 5.55004.3000–7.2000 | ok |
| xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash | 5.45005.2000–5.8500 | 5.50004.9500–6.2500 | 5.55004.8500–6.5000 | 6.50005.0000–8.5000 | ok |
| meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor | – | – | – | – | error |
| deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash | 5.55005.3000–5.8500 | 5.65005.0500–6.3500 | 5.80004.8500–6.9500 | 6.40004.6000–8.9000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5 | 5.49005.2000–5.8000 | 5.50004.9000–6.2000 | 5.55004.7000–6.5000 | 6.10004.5000–8.1000 | ok |
| moonshotai/kimi-k3 | 5.50005.2500–5.8500 | 5.45004.9500–6.0500 | 5.50004.7000–6.5500 | 5.80004.3000–7.6000 | ok |
| typesafe/jev-1.14typesafe/jev-1.14-20261014 | 5.40615.2683–5.4893 | 5.33615.1273–5.4701 | 5.30195.1102–5.4935 | 6.73405.3365–9.4488 | ok |
| google/gemini-3.8-flash | 5.46005.3200–5.6200 | 5.39005.1500–5.7000 | 5.42005.0500–5.8800 | 5.80004.8500–6.9500 | ok |
| upstage/solar-mini4 | 5.33005.2500–5.5200 | 5.40005.2800–5.6500 | 5.45005.3000–5.7500 | 6.00005.5000–7.0000 | ok |
| google/gemini-4-argon | 5.51005.2200–5.8200 | 5.56004.9500–6.2500 | 5.62004.8000–6.5500 | 6.10004.5000–8.3000 | ok |
| xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro | 5.42005.1600–5.7200 | 5.42004.9800–5.9500 | 5.50004.7200–6.4800 | 5.85004.1500–8.4000 | ok |
| nvidia/nemotron-3.5-lightning | 5.34285.1800–5.5040 | 5.33005.1400–5.5200 | 5.40005.2000–5.6000 | 5.50004.8000–6.2000 | ok |
| z-ai/glm-5.2 | 5.34005.1800–5.5200 | 5.33004.9800–5.6800 | 5.37004.8500–5.9500 | 5.75004.5000–7.2500 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6.1-terra | 5.47005.1600–5.8400 | 5.47004.8200–6.3000 | 5.52004.6400–6.6800 | 6.00004.3100–8.6500 | ok |
| dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview | – | – | – | – | error |
| qwen/qwen3.8-flash | 5.46005.0700–5.8800 | 5.51004.9200–6.2000 | 5.65004.7500–6.7500 | 5.95004.6000–7.6500 | ok |
| qwen/qwen3.8-27b | 5.46005.2800–5.7200 | 5.40004.9800–5.9000 | 5.42004.7500–6.1500 | 5.55004.3000–7.1000 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6-luna-pro | 5.48005.0800–5.9100 | 5.52004.7200–6.4600 | 5.58004.4600–6.9900 | 6.05003.9000–9.3800 | ok |
| google/gemini-3-flash-preview | 5.48505.3400–5.6800 | 5.42005.1500–5.7500 | 5.45005.1000–5.9500 | 5.65004.8000–6.8000 | ok |
| deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro | 5.43005.1900–5.7200 | 5.40004.8200–6.1200 | 5.45004.6000–6.5500 | 5.70004.0000–8.5000 | ok |
| google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite | 5.51855.4125–5.7642 | 5.48505.2855–5.8920 | 5.56455.2520–6.1280 | 6.31505.6250–7.4580 | ok |
| stepfun/step-3.7-flash | – | – | – | – | invalid |
| minimax/minimax-m3 | 5.49005.3500–5.6800 | 5.42005.1800–5.7800 | 5.38005.0500–5.9000 | 5.50004.8000–6.8000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 | 5.45005.3000–5.6200 | 5.40005.1000–5.7500 | 5.45005.0500–5.9000 | 5.80004.9000–7.0000 | ok |
| google/gemma-4-31b-it | 5.45005.3200–5.6200 | 5.33005.2500–5.5500 | 5.40005.2000–5.7500 | 5.80005.4000–6.5000 | ok |
| qwen/qwen3.7-flash | 5.34785.2664–5.4815 | 5.33785.2531–5.4765 | 5.37345.2601–5.5145 | 5.54285.3174–5.8326 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6-astra | 5.48005.1400–5.8700 | 5.47004.7900–6.3200 | 5.55004.5800–6.8600 | 6.12004.0900–9.5900 | ok |
| upstage/solar-pro4 | 5.40355.3380–5.5240 | 5.39955.3010–5.5220 | 5.39955.3010–5.5220 | 5.25955.1240–5.4120 | ok |
| google/gemini-3.7-flash | 5.45005.2850–5.6200 | 5.38005.0800–5.7200 | 5.42004.9500–5.9500 | 5.70004.6000–7.1000 | ok |
| openai/gpt-oss-120b | 5.52505.4500–5.6000 | 5.65005.5500–5.7500 | 5.77505.6500–5.9000 | 6.50006.2000–6.8000 | ok |
| google/gemma-4-26b-a4b-it | 5.34505.3125–5.4850 | 5.33005.2450–5.4950 | 5.37005.1820–5.6200 | 5.50004.9500–6.2500 | ok |
| thinkingmachines/inkling | 5.45005.2200–5.7200 | 5.38005.0800–5.8200 | 5.42005.0500–5.9200 | 5.68005.1500–6.4500 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-fable-5.1 | 5.49005.1500–5.8700 | 5.53004.8500–6.3300 | 5.62004.7500–6.7000 | 6.20004.5500–8.5000 | ok |
| perplexity/pplx-decider-v1.2perplexity/pplx-decider-v1.2-20261016 | 5.37115.2336–5.5477 | 5.30185.0020–5.5595 | 5.27884.8513–5.6867 | 6.15345.4278–7.6032 | ok |
| google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite | 5.50005.4577–5.5423 | 5.40005.3200–5.4800 | 5.40005.3100–5.4900 | 5.45005.3500–5.5500 | ok |
| Consensus (median of p50, one vote per model) | 5.4500n = 46 | 5.4000n = 46 | 5.4500n = 46 | 5.9000n = 46 | |
| Baselines | |||||
| Random walk (PTAX on the prediction date) | 5.4935 | 5.4935 | 5.4935 | 5.4935 | |
| Focus median | 5.342812/2026 | 5.330005/2027 | 5.370011/2027 | – | |
| Forward (approximation): PTAX × ((1 + Selic) / (1 + Fed funds))^(days/365)Selic 13.75% · Fed funds 3.88% | 5.5346 | 5.7464 | 6.0155 | 8.6508 | |
Method
This page is an experiment. Each day at 14:00 BRT, the 50 most popular models on OpenRouter get the same data packet and give the p10, p50 and p90 of the PTAX on each target date. The page shows numbers only.
Decision models (Jev, Perplexity Decider) answer with a probability for each range of change; the page shows p10, p50 and p90 from those probabilities.
Target dates: 30d Dec 3, 2026, 6m May 3, 2027, 1y Nov 3, 2027, 5y Nov 3, 2031.
Raw data for this run: parsed.json · run.json · models.json · packet.json · prompt.json · raw.jsonl.gz